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Oltrepo vs Sondrio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Oltrepo

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sondrio

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-16.0%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.6%1-110.3%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.1%3-15.0%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-13.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 13.0% — — —

Over 2.5 41.2% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 37.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob37.8%

H 64% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 2–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oltrepo1.7

Sondrio0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLTREPO · PPG 1.20

SONDRIO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Oltrepo (H) 63.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sondrio (A) 13.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Oltrepo face Sondrio in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oltrepo a 64% chance, the draw 23% and Sondrio 13%, so Oltrepo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oltrepo and 0.6 for Sondrio (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oltrepo are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Sondrio. This match finished 0-3.

Oltrepo vs Sondrio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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