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F. Caratese vs Real Calepina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

F. Caratese

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Calepina

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-14.7%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-19.4%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-16.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 11.4% — — —

Over 2.5 48.9% — — —

Over 3.5 27.0% — — —

BTTS 41.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.4%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 1–1✓ 9.4%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Caratese2.0

Real Calepina0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

F. CARATESE · PPG 1.93

REAL CALEPINA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

F. Caratese (H) 68.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Calepina (A) 11.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Caratese face Real Calepina in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Caratese a 69% chance, the draw 20% and Real Calepina 11%, so F. Caratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for F. Caratese and 0.7 for Real Calepina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Caratese are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.33 for Real Calepina. This match finished 1-1.

F. Caratese vs Real Calepina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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