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Farsta vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Farsta

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rågsved

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.6%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.0%1-15.0%1-23.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.2%2-17.7%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-113.5%4+-28.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 44.8% 2.23 +44.3%

Draw 16.8% 27.8% 3.60 -23.7%

Away win 18.5% 40.8% 2.45 -32.8%

Over 2.5 72.7% 74.6% 1.34 -2.6%

Over 3.5 53.3% 53.5% 1.87 -0.3%

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -29.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 65% / xG 3.1-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 6.4%

#4 4–1 6.2%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farsta3.1

Rågsved1.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FARSTA · PPG 3.00

RÅGSVED · PPG 1.17

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Farsta (H) 64.7%

ODDS 2.23 · IMPLIED 44.8% EV +44.3%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -23.7%

Rågsved (A) 18.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farsta face Rågsved in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farsta a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Rågsved 19%, so Farsta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Farsta and 1.3 for Rågsved (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farsta are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Rågsved.

Farsta vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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