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Sleipner vs Orebro S. Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

Sleipner

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Orebro S.

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.9%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.2%1-112.6%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 55.6% 1.80 -20.3%

Draw 27.9% 26.3% 3.80 +3.6%

Away win 27.9% 28.6% 3.50 -1.4%

Over 2.5 48.5% 66.7% 1.50 -27.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 43.5% 2.30 -21.5%

BTTS 53.5% 69.0% 1.45 -22.4%

Home O1.5 41.4% 62.5% 1.60 -33.8%

Away O1.5 31.0% 42.6% 2.35 -27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sleipner1.4

Orebro S.1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SLEIPNER · PPG 2.00

OREBRO S. · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

Sleipner (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.6%

Orebro S. (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sleipner face Orebro S. in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sleipner a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Orebro S. 28%, so Sleipner are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sleipner and 1.1 for Orebro S. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sleipner are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Orebro S.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Sleipner vs Orebro S. Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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