Port Vale vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 25 Vale Park· Stoke on Trent Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:45

Port Vale PPG 0.95

0-0 MISS

Barnsley PPG 1.16

Over3.5· +11.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Vale face Barnsley in England - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Vale a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Barnsley 44%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Port Vale and 1.6 for Barnsley (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Vale are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.16 for Barnsley. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.2%

Odds: 2.82 EV: -9.2%

Draw 24.3%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -19.8%

Away 43.5%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +4.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.8% Odds: 1.90 +7.9%

Over 3.5 34.4% Odds: 3.25 +11.8%

BTTS 59.3% Odds: 1.67 -1.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Port Vale

1.35

Barnsley

1.61

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+11.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.95), Away AVERAGE (1.16)