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Port Vale vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 25 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Port Vale

PPG 0.95 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Barnsley

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.3%0-26.7%0-33.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.0%1-111.3%1-29.1%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.6%2-26.1%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.1%3-13.4%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 35.5% 2.82 -9.2%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -19.8%

Away win 43.5% 41.7% 2.40 +4.4%

Over 2.5 56.8% 52.6% 1.90 +7.9%

Over 3.5 34.4% 30.8% 3.25 +11.8%

BTTS 59.3% 59.9% 1.67 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.3%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 8.3%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Vale1.4

Barnsley1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT VALE · PPG 0.95

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.95), Away AVERAGE (1.16)

Win probability 1X2

Port Vale (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -19.8%

Barnsley (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Vale face Barnsley in England - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Vale a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Barnsley 44%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Port Vale and 1.6 for Barnsley (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Vale are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.16 for Barnsley. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Port Vale vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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