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Breno vs Brusaporto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Breno

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Brusaporto

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.7%0-27.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.8%2-17.0%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.4%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 39.2% — — —

Over 2.5 38.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.9% — — —

BTTS 45.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.3%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breno1.0

Brusaporto1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENO · PPG 1.47

BRUSAPORTO · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Breno (H) 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brusaporto (A) 39.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Breno face Brusaporto in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breno a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Brusaporto 39%, so Brusaporto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Breno and 1.2 for Brusaporto (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breno are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.67 for Brusaporto. This match finished 0-2.

Breno vs Brusaporto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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