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Nõmme United vs Trans Narva Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme United

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trans Narva

PPG 0.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+23.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.2%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.1%1-22.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.9%2-17.0%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-18.0%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-016.2%4+-116.5%4+-28.4%4+-32.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 54.1% 1.85 +16.4%

Draw 16.3% 26.3% 3.80 -22.8%

Away win 20.7% 30.3% 3.30 -19.0%

Over 2.5 72.7% 69.0% 1.45 +5.4%

Over 3.5 53.3% 46.5% 2.15 +14.6%

BTTS 62.1% 70.4% 1.42 -11.8%

Home O1.5 77.1% 62.5% 1.60 +23.4%

Away O1.5 31.6% 45.5% 2.20 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 63% / xG 3.4-1.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 4–1 6.9%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United3.4

Trans Narva1.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED · PPG 1.20

TRANS NARVA · PPG 0.10

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.41 for Home, form 1.20 vs 0.10 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +16.4%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -22.8%

Trans Narva (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United face Trans Narva in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Trans Narva 21%, so Nõmme United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Nõmme United and 1.0 for Trans Narva (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.10 for Trans Narva. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.7%.

Nõmme United vs Trans Narva Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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