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Malmö FF W vs Piteå W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Malmö FF W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Piteå W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-13.9%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.8%1-18.1%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-16.0%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-15.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 72.5% 1.38 -8.9%

Draw 21.6% 23.3% 4.30 -4.3%

Away win 12.4% 16.0% 6.25 -13.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 64.9% 1.54 -17.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.6% 2.35 -24.3%

BTTS 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Home O1.5 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.6%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 3–0 10.9%

#4 1–1 8.1%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmö FF W2.1

Piteå W0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMÖ FF W · PPG 2.40

PITEÅ W · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Malmö FF W (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -4.3%

Piteå W (A) 12.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmö FF W face Piteå W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmö FF W a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Piteå W 12%, so Malmö FF W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Malmö FF W and 0.6 for Piteå W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmö FF W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Piteå W.

Malmö FF W vs Piteå W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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