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Pitea W vs Hammarby W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 11 ·Thursday, June 25, 2026, 16:00

Pitea W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hammarby W

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-118.0%0-214.2%0-37.5%0-4+4.2%1 1-06.7%1-110.6%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.0%2-13.1%2-22.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 7.20 +0.9%

Draw 25.5% 4.00 +1.2%

Away win 60.4% 1.36 -17.9%

Over 2.5 48.9% 1.65 -19.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 48.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Win probability 1X2

Pitea W (H) 14.1%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +0.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.2%

Hammarby W (A) 60.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 16.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.1%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.6 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.0%

#2 0–2 14.2%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pitea W0.6

Hammarby W1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEA W · PPG 1.20

HAMMARBY W · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Pitea W face Hammarby W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Thursday, June 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pitea W a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Hammarby W 60%, so Hammarby W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Pitea W and 1.6 for Hammarby W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pitea W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 3.00 for Hammarby W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +46.3%.

Pitea W vs Hammarby W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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