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Malmo FF W vs Kristianstads W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 12:00

Malmo FF W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kristianstads W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.0%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-110.0%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.6%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 1.44 -17.3%

Draw 22.4% 4.10 -4.9%

Away win 20.1% 5.75 +9.3%

Over 2.5 61.3% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 37.3% 2.25 -16.1%

BTTS 55.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.50 -18.4%

Away Over 1.5 32.2% 3.75 +20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 9.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.8%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF W2.0

Kristianstads W1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF W · PPG 2.25

KRISTIANSTADS W · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=57.4%

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF W (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.9%

Kristianstads W (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF W face Kristianstads W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF W a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Kristianstads W 20%, so Malmo FF W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Malmo FF W and 1.0 for Kristianstads W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Kristianstads W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.8%.

Malmo FF W vs Kristianstads W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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