Today / Brazil - Serie A / Fluminense vs Bahia

Fluminense vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 00:30

Fluminense

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bahia

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+12.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.5%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.4%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.3%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 55.9% 1.79 -4.2%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 54.6% 1.83 +12.0%

Over 3.5 38.0% 32.3% 3.10 +17.8%

BTTS 60.0% 57.8% 1.73 +3.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 54.6% 1.83 -1.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense1.9

Bahia1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.30

BAHIA · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.79 · IMPLIED 55.9% EV -4.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

Bahia (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Bahia 24%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fluminense and 1.1 for Bahia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.56 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Fluminense vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions