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Internacional vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 22:30

Internacional

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-112.5%0-28.7%0-34.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.1%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.6%2-16.5%2-24.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 26.7% 3.75 +18.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 41.9% 50.8% 1.97 -17.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.0

Flamengo1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.10

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 31.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +18.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Flamengo (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Flamengo 42%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Internacional and 1.4 for Flamengo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 2.00 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Internacional vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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