Today / Brazil - Serie A / Mirassol vs Remo

Mirassol vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 22:30

Mirassol

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Remo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.1%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-110.9%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.9%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 58.5% 1.71 -9.4%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 23.3% 20.8% 4.80 +7.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 28.2% 3.55 +14.3%

BTTS 55.4% 52.6% 1.90 +5.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Away O1.5 27.8% 26.0% 3.85 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.8

Remo1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.50

REMO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Remo (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Remo in Brazil - Serie A on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Remo 23%, so Mirassol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mirassol and 1.0 for Remo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Remo. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Mirassol vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions