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Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+21.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.1%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.1%1-18.7%1-26.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.7%4+-24.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 57.8% 1.73 -13.5%

Draw 22.4% 28.2% 3.55 -12.3%

Away win 27.5% 20.8% 4.80 +19.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 52.6% 1.90 +21.0%

Over 3.5 41.8% 31.3% 3.20 +33.8%

BTTS 63.2% 56.5% 1.77 +11.9%

Home O1.5 61.8% 55.6% 1.80 +11.2%

Away O1.5 41.9% 28.2% 3.55 +48.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro2.1

Botafogo1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.60

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.3%

Botafogo (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Botafogo 28%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Cruzeiro and 1.4 for Botafogo (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.10 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +48.7%.

Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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