Today / Brazil - Serie A / Vitoria vs Palmeiras

Vitoria vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 00:30

Vitoria

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Palmeiras

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-112.6%0-27.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.6%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.2%2-17.1%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 25.6% 3.90 +45.1%

Draw 28.0% 30.3% 3.30 -4.6%

Away win 34.8% 51.0% 1.96 -31.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.7% 3.75 +5.0%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.1

Palmeiras1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.44

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 37.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +45.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.6%

Palmeiras (A) 34.8%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Palmeiras 35%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Vitoria and 1.1 for Palmeiras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 2.10 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.3%.

Vitoria vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions