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RB Bragantino vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

RB Bragantino

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Coritiba

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.6%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.5%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 63.3% 1.58 -10.3%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 20.4% 17.4% 5.75 +10.4%

Over 2.5 55.7% 51.8% 1.93 +7.5%

Over 3.5 34.7% 29.9% 3.35 +16.2%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Away O1.5 24.9% 23.1% 4.33 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Bragantino1.9

Coritiba0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RB BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.78

CORITIBA · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

RB Bragantino (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -10.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Coritiba (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Bragantino face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Bragantino a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Coritiba 20%, so RB Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for RB Bragantino and 0.9 for Coritiba (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Bragantino are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.40 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.8%.

RB Bragantino vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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