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Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

Flamengo

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sao Paulo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.4%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-19.1%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.6%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-15.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 68.0% 1.47 -13.7%

Draw 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Away win 19.5% 14.7% 6.80 +19.6%

Over 2.5 58.4% 52.6% 1.90 +11.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 30.8% 3.25 +15.0%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 61.7% 1.62 +0.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 21.1% 4.75 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo2.1

Sao Paulo0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.12

SAO PAULO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -13.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Sao Paulo (A) 19.5%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Sao Paulo 20%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Flamengo and 0.7 for Sao Paulo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.80 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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