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Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 21 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 22:30

Corinthians

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-110.8%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-17.9%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 52.6% 1.90 -10.9%

Draw 29.0% 30.8% 3.25 -3.5%

Away win 24.1% 23.3% 4.30 +2.2%

Over 2.5 45.5% 41.7% 2.40 +9.2%

Over 3.5 25.7% 21.1% 4.75 +13.2%

BTTS 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Home O1.5 33.1% 44.4% 2.25 -25.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.8%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.2

Atletico Paranaense0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.70

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.5%

Atletico Paranaense (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Atletico Paranaense in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Atletico Paranaense 24%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Corinthians and 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.11 for Atletico Paranaense. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.8%.

Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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