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Bahia vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Bahia

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Corinthians

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.3%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.4%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 46.3% 2.16 +9.5%

Draw 25.7% 29.9% 3.35 -8.3%

Away win 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -14.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 34.7% 2.88 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia1.5

Corinthians0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.60

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +9.5%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.3%

Corinthians (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Corinthians 24%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bahia and 0.8 for Corinthians (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.11 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Bahia vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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