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Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

Gremio

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fluminense

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 38.2% 2.62 +21.8%

Draw 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Away win 27.7% 39.1% 2.56 -17.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 32.8% 30.8% 3.25 +6.6%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 46.3% 42.0% 2.38 +10.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio1.5

Fluminense1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 1.89

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +21.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.1%

Fluminense (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Fluminense 28%, so Gremio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gremio and 1.1 for Fluminense (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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