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Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 22:00

Banfield

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-16.8%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.1%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 51.0% 1.96 +7.0%

Draw 25.1% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

Away win 20.3% 23.0% 4.35 -7.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 35.7% 2.80 +40.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 17.4% 5.75 +39.0%

BTTS 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

Home O1.5 53.5% 40.0% 2.50 +33.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 21.1% 4.75 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banfield1.6

Sarmiento Junin0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANFIELD · PPG 1.75

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Banfield (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +7.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.8%

Sarmiento Junin (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banfield face Sarmiento Junin in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banfield a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Sarmiento Junin 20%, so Banfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Banfield and 0.7 for Sarmiento Junin (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banfield are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.38 for Sarmiento Junin. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.0%.

Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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