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Barracas Central vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 17:30

Barracas Central

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aldosivi

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+23.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-16.7%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-19.5%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.0%2-16.8%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.6%3-13.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 43.5% 2.30 +23.7%

Draw 26.3% 36.0% 2.78 -16.1%

Away win 19.9% 27.8% 3.60 -17.0%

Over 2.5 37.3% 32.3% 3.10 +15.6%

Over 3.5 19.4% 15.4% 6.50 +15.7%

BTTS 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 33.3% 3.00 +36.2%

Away O1.5 11.1% 22.2% 4.50 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.4%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 0–0 15.7%

#3 2–0 16.0%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barracas Central1.4

Aldosivi0.4

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRACAS CENTRAL · PPG 1.38

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barracas Central (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +23.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -16.1%

Aldosivi (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barracas Central face Aldosivi in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barracas Central a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Aldosivi 20%, so Barracas Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barracas Central and 0.4 for Aldosivi (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barracas Central are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.22 for Aldosivi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +36.2%.

Barracas Central vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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