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Gimnasia L.P. vs River Plate Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 22:15

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

River Plate

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-112.8%0-27.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.8%2-16.9%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 25.0% 4.00 +27.6%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

Over 2.5 45.7% 40.8% 2.45 +12.0%

Over 3.5 27.2% 21.1% 4.75 +17.5%

BTTS 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 25.0% 4.00 +30.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 42.0% 2.38 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

A 40% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia L.P.1.0

River Plate1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.62

RIVER PLATE · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia L.P. (H) 31.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +27.6%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

River Plate (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia L.P. face River Plate in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia L.P. a 32% chance, the draw 28% and River Plate 40%, so River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.2 for River Plate (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia L.P. are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.75 for River Plate. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +33.3%.

Gimnasia L.P. vs River Plate Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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