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Rosario Central vs Racing Club Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 00:15

Rosario Central

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Club

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.9%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.7%1-112.6%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-18.9%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 44.6% 2.24 +10.2%

Draw 26.8% 33.6% 2.98 -12.1%

Away win 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 39.2% 2.55 +28.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

BTTS 52.6% 47.6% 2.10 +10.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 27.0% 3.70 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central1.4

Racing Club0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 2.00

RACING CLUB · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +10.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -12.1%

Racing Club (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central face Racing Club in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Racing Club 24%, so Rosario Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rosario Central and 0.9 for Racing Club (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.36 for Racing Club. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +33.3%.

Rosario Central vs Racing Club Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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