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Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 20:00

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Riestra

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.7%0-111.4%0-23.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.8%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.9%2-15.7%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.7%3-11.9%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 46.7% 2.14 -4.6%

Draw 30.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.1%

Away win 25.1% 25.6% 3.90 -1.3%

Over 2.5 37.3% 35.1% 2.85 +6.3%

Over 3.5 19.0% 17.4% 5.75 +5.5%

BTTS 45.4% 44.4% 2.25 +2.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.4%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.7%

#2 1–0 21.8%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa Y Justicia1.0

Deportivo Riestra0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA · PPG 0.38

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.53 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensa Y Justicia (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -4.6%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.1%

Deportivo Riestra (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa Y Justicia face Deportivo Riestra in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa Y Justicia a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Deportivo Riestra 25%, so Defensa Y Justicia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.5 for Deportivo Riestra (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa Y Justicia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Deportivo Riestra. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Defensa Y Justicia vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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