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Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 22:30

Palmeiras

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico-MG

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-15.0%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-19.4%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.3%3-15.6%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-14.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 60.2% 1.66 -6.0%

Draw 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -8.5%

Away win 20.3% 20.0% 5.00 +0.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 48.5% 52.4% 1.91 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 54.6% 1.83 +1.9%

Away O1.5 19.1% 25.0% 4.00 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras1.9

Atletico-MG0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.56

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -6.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.5%

Atletico-MG (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras face Atletico-MG in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Atletico-MG 20%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Palmeiras and 0.6 for Atletico-MG (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.90 for Atletico-MG. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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