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Lanus vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:30

Lanus

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-112.8%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.3%1-112.5%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-16.1%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 50.3% 1.99 -17.6%

Draw 32.7% 34.7% 2.88 -5.8%

Away win 25.9% 21.7% 4.60 +11.5%

Over 2.5 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Over 3.5 14.3% 15.4% 6.50 -4.2%

BTTS 46.4% 40.8% 2.45 +13.7%

Home O1.5 35.0% 37.7% 2.65 -7.2%

Away O1.5 19.9% 19.0% 5.25 +2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -21.3%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanus1.0

San Lorenzo0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LANUS · PPG 1.62

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 1.62 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lanus (H) 41.4%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -17.6%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.8%

San Lorenzo (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanus face San Lorenzo in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanus a 41% chance, the draw 33% and San Lorenzo 26%, so Lanus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lanus and 0.6 for San Lorenzo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanus are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.33 for San Lorenzo. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +13.7%.

Lanus vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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