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San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 22:00

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia M.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-18.6%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-112.0%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.4%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 50.3% 1.99 +6.3%

Draw 26.5% 34.2% 2.92 -13.6%

Away win 20.1% 22.7% 4.40 -6.9%

Over 2.5 43.9% 34.5% 2.90 +27.3%

Over 3.5 23.6% 16.0% 6.25 +28.5%

BTTS 48.5% 42.0% 2.38 +15.4%

Home O1.5 42.8% 38.5% 2.60 +11.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo1.4

Gimnasia M.0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.38

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV +6.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -13.6%

Gimnasia M. (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face Gimnasia M. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Gimnasia M. 20%, so San Lorenzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Lorenzo and 0.7 for Gimnasia M. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Gimnasia M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.5%.

San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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