Today / England - League One / Leyton Orient vs Mansfield

Leyton Orient vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Leyton Orient

PPG 1.45 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mansfield

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.1%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.1%1-111.3%1-27.8%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 39.4% 2.54 +7.4%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -16.2%

Away win 33.4% 38.8% 2.58 -13.8%

Over 2.5 57.0% 54.1% 1.85 +5.5%

Over 3.5 34.6% 32.3% 3.10 +7.3%

BTTS 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.6%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leyton Orient1.6

Mansfield1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEYTON ORIENT · PPG 1.45

MANSFIELD · PPG 1.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away AVERAGE (1.16)

Win probability 1X2

Leyton Orient (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +7.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.2%

Mansfield (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leyton Orient face Mansfield in England - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leyton Orient a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Mansfield 33%, so Leyton Orient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leyton Orient and 1.4 for Mansfield (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leyton Orient are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.16 for Mansfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Leyton Orient vs Mansfield Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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