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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

One Knoxville

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.0%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.7

One Knoxville1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 2.14

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 2.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

One Knoxville (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga Red Wolves face One Knoxville in USA - USL League One on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 46% chance, the draw 25% and One Knoxville 29%, so Chattanooga Red Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 1.1 for One Knoxville (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga Red Wolves are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.43 for One Knoxville.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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