Today / USA - USL League One / Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:00

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Union Omaha

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.1%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.7%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 34.5% 2.90 +51.4%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 23.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 34.1% 36.4% 2.75 -6.2%

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 42.6% 2.35 +25.7%

Away O1.5 32.9% 51.8% 1.93 -36.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Hearts of Pine1.6

Union Omaha1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 1.71

UNION OMAHA · PPG 1.12

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Hearts of Pine (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +51.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Union Omaha (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Hearts of Pine face Union Omaha in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Hearts of Pine a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Union Omaha 23%, so Portland Hearts of Pine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.0 for Union Omaha (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Hearts of Pine are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.12 for Union Omaha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions