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Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Charlotte Independence

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Richmond Kickers

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.4%1-13.7%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.4%2-16.4%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-023.2%4+-115.9%4+-25.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 9.5% — — —

Over 2.5 72.6% — — —

Over 3.5 49.7% — — —

BTTS 54.0% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob54.0%

H 73% / xG 3.5-0.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.9%

#2 4–0 9.5%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 5–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte Independence3.5

Richmond Kickers0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 2.57

RICHMOND KICKERS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte Independence (H) 73.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Richmond Kickers (A) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte Independence face Richmond Kickers in USA - USL League One on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte Independence a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Richmond Kickers 10%, so Charlotte Independence are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Charlotte Independence and 0.7 for Richmond Kickers (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte Independence are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.44 for Richmond Kickers.

Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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