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Forward Madison vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Forward Madison

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naples

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +2.11 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.2%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.4%1-15.9%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-17.9%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.5%3-17.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.0%4+-19.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% — — —

Draw 18.3% — — —

Away win 10.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 72% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 4–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward Madison2.7

Naples0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 2.60

NAPLES · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.11 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forward Madison (H) 71.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Naples (A) 10.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward Madison face Naples in USA - USL League One on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward Madison a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Naples 10%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Forward Madison and 0.6 for Naples (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward Madison are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Naples.

Forward Madison vs Naples Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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