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Spokane Velocity vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:00

Spokane Velocity

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Charlotte Independence

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.7%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.1%1-27.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.6%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 54.1% 1.85 -19.5%

Draw 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 34.4% 29.4% 3.40 +17.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 61.7% 1.62 +3.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 39.2% 2.55 +5.3%

BTTS 62.7% 65.4% 1.53 -4.1%

Home O1.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 40.8% 2.45 +20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.7%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spokane Velocity1.8

Charlotte Independence1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOKANE VELOCITY · PPG 2.33

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spokane Velocity (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Charlotte Independence (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spokane Velocity face Charlotte Independence in USA - USL League One on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spokane Velocity a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Charlotte Independence 34%, so Spokane Velocity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Spokane Velocity and 1.5 for Charlotte Independence (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spokane Velocity are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Charlotte Independence. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Spokane Velocity vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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