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Spokane Velocity vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:00

Spokane Velocity

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Charlotte Independence

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.5%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.8%1-110.8%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.6%3-15.1%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 41.7% 2.40 +1.3%

Draw 23.4% 29.0% 3.45 -11.6%

Away win 34.4% 39.2% 2.55 -12.3%

Over 2.5 63.2% 58.8% 1.70 +7.4%

Over 3.5 40.1% 36.4% 2.75 +10.3%

BTTS 62.5% 64.5% 1.55 -3.1%

Home O1.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Away O1.5 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spokane Velocity1.7

Charlotte Independence1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOKANE VELOCITY · PPG 2.33

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=42.2%

Win probability 1X2

Spokane Velocity (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +1.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.6%

Charlotte Independence (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spokane Velocity face Charlotte Independence in USA - USL League One on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spokane Velocity a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Charlotte Independence 34%, so Spokane Velocity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Spokane Velocity and 1.4 for Charlotte Independence (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spokane Velocity are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Charlotte Independence. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Spokane Velocity vs Charlotte Independence Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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