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NY Cosmos vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

NY Cosmos

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boise

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.7%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.6%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 32.3% — — —

Over 2.5 56.6% — — —

Over 3.5 34.9% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NY Cosmos1.5

Boise1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NY COSMOS · PPG 1.38

BOISE · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NY Cosmos (H) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boise (A) 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

NY Cosmos face Boise in USA - USL League One on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NY Cosmos a 43% chance, the draw 25% and Boise 32%, so NY Cosmos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for NY Cosmos and 1.4 for Boise (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NY Cosmos are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.14 for Boise.

NY Cosmos vs Boise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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