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Westchester SC vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:00

Westchester SC

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

NY Cosmos

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 66% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+27.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.6%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.8%1-15.0%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.1%2-17.9%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.9%4+-113.8%4+-25.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.7% 54.1% 1.85 +32.6%

Draw 18.3% 27.0% 3.70 -19.4%

Away win 10.0% 29.4% 3.40 -39.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 65.4% 1.53 +2.5%

Over 3.5 46.9% 42.6% 2.35 +10.2%

BTTS 55.4% 69.0% 1.45 -19.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 60.6% 1.65 +27.5%

Away O1.5 22.1% 42.6% 2.35 -28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 72% / xG 3.1-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Westchester SC3.1

NY Cosmos0.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTCHESTER SC · PPG 1.75

NY COSMOS · PPG 0.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.25 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Westchester SC (H) 71.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +32.6%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -19.4%

NY Cosmos (A) 10.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Westchester SC face NY Cosmos in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Westchester SC a 72% chance, the draw 18% and NY Cosmos 10%, so Westchester SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Westchester SC and 0.9 for NY Cosmos (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Westchester SC are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for NY Cosmos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +48.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Westchester SC vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions