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Remo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 22:30

Remo

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vitoria

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.3%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-111.8%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 46.3% 2.16 +9.1%

Draw 25.4% 29.9% 3.35 -8.9%

Away win 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 28.2% 3.55 +1.8%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Away O1.5 31.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo1.6

Vitoria1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 1.11

VITORIA · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.9%

Vitoria (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Vitoria 24%, so Remo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Remo and 1.0 for Vitoria (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.40 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.3%.

Remo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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