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Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:30

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Internacional

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.5%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.9%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 19.9% 26.0% 3.85 -14.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 48.5% 52.4% 1.91 -7.4%

Home O1.5 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.2% 3.55 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Paranaense1.7

Internacional0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 2.30

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Paranaense (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +10.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Internacional (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Paranaense face Internacional in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Paranaense a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Internacional 20%, so Atletico Paranaense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.7 for Internacional (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Paranaense are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.11 for Internacional. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%.

Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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