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Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:30

Santos

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.2%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.5%1-17.7%1-23.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.3%3-17.6%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-18.2%4+-23.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 71.4% 1.40 -11.9%

Draw 19.9% 23.3% 4.30 -8.7%

Away win 17.2% 12.5% 8.00 +22.6%

Over 2.5 62.8% 58.8% 1.70 +6.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 36.4% 2.75 +10.0%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 61.8% 66.7% 1.50 -7.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 22.2% 4.50 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 63% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos2.4

Chapecoense-sc0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.70

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.22

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 1.70 vs 0.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.9%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -8.7%

Chapecoense-sc (A) 17.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Chapecoense-sc in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Chapecoense-sc 17%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Santos and 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.22 for Chapecoense-sc. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.6%.

Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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