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Atletico Tucuman vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Tucuman

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.3%0-28.8%0-34.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.5%2-16.5%2-24.6%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

Draw 28.5% 32.8% 3.05 -7.8%

Away win 42.1% 36.0% 2.78 +17.0%

Over 2.5 47.9% 42.6% 2.35 +12.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 35.7% 2.80 -2.0%

Away O1.5 41.9% 33.9% 2.95 +23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -21.3%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.8%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Tucuman1.0

Independ. Rivadavia1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TUCUMAN · PPG 1.38

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.40, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Tucuman (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.8%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.8%

Independ. Rivadavia (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Tucuman face Independ. Rivadavia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Tucuman a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Independ. Rivadavia 42%, so Independ. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico Tucuman and 1.4 for Independ. Rivadavia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Tucuman are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.14 for Independ. Rivadavia. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.6%.

Atletico Tucuman vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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