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Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 22:30

Deportivo Riestra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boca Juniors

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.4%0-123.4%0-210.4%0-33.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-110.4%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.6%2-12.3%2-21.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.3%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 22.5% 4.45 -4.2%

Draw 33.7% 34.2% 2.92 -1.6%

Away win 45.4% 50.3% 1.99 -9.7%

Over 2.5 33.3% 31.3% 3.20 +6.6%

Over 3.5 13.0% 14.3% 7.00 -5.4%

BTTS 46.4% 39.2% 2.55 +18.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 18.2% 5.50 +83.2%

Away O1.5 24.7% 36.4% 2.75 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -21.3%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

A 45% / xG 0.4-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.4%

#2 0–1 23.4%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–0 11.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Riestra0.4

Boca Juniors0.9

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA · PPG 1.00

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.44, combined xG 1.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Riestra (H) 20.9%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -4.2%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -1.6%

Boca Juniors (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Riestra face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Riestra a 21% chance, the draw 34% and Boca Juniors 45%, so Boca Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.9 for Boca Juniors (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Riestra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +83.2%.

Deportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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