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Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:15

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+18.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-16.3%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-110.7%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-15.0%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 46.5% 2.15 +18.9%

Draw 24.7% 33.6% 2.98 -15.8%

Away win 20.0% 27.0% 3.70 -15.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 37.7% 2.65 +32.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 19.0% 5.25 +30.4%

BTTS 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 38.5% 2.60 +39.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -21.3%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes L.P.1.7

Independiente0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.78

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes L.P. (H) 55.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +18.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -15.8%

Independiente (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes L.P. face Independiente in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes L.P. a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente 20%, so Estudiantes L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.7 for Independiente (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes L.P. are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Independiente. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.4%.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions