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Aucas vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:15

Aucas

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Macara

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-19.9%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.6%1-112.8%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Draw 27.6% 34.5% 2.90 -12.0%

Away win 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Over 2.5 46.8% 43.5% 2.30 +7.6%

Over 3.5 26.4% 23.1% 4.33 +8.6%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 26.7% 3.75 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas1.3

Macara0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 1.90

MACARA · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.0%

Macara (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Macara 26%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aucas and 0.8 for Macara (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.20 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Aucas vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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