Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Guayaquil City FC vs Universidad Catolica

Guayaquil City FC vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 21:30

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universidad Catolica

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-114.4%0-27.6%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.7%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.9%2-16.3%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 26.7% 3.75 +36.5%

Draw 29.6% 29.4% 3.40 +0.4%

Away win 34.0% 50.8% 1.97 -33.0%

Over 2.5 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 26.3% 3.80 -7.6%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.5% 29.4% 3.40 +13.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City FC0.9

Universidad Catolica1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.50

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City FC (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +36.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +0.4%

Universidad Catolica (A) 34.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City FC face Universidad Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City FC a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Universidad Catolica 34%, so Guayaquil City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guayaquil City FC and 1.1 for Universidad Catolica (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City FC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Universidad Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%.

Guayaquil City FC vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions