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Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:00

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manta FC

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-17.7%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-110.2%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-16.7%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.5%3-13.0%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 54.3% 1.84 +0.1%

Draw 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Away win 18.9% 22.2% 4.50 -9.0%

Over 2.5 39.3% 40.8% 2.45 -3.7%

Over 3.5 19.7% 21.1% 4.75 -3.9%

BTTS 46.4% 46.5% 2.15 -0.2%

Home O1.5 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

Away O1.5 16.5% 22.2% 4.50 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 54% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 0–0 16.9%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico Universitario1.3

Manta FC0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.30

MANTA FC · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico Universitario (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +0.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

Manta FC (A) 18.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico Universitario face Manta FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico Universitario a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Manta FC 19%, so Tecnico Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tecnico Universitario and 0.5 for Manta FC (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico Universitario are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.50 for Manta FC.

Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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