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9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:30

9 de Octubre

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

22 de Julio

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-12.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.5%1-15.9%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.1%2-16.9%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.0%3-15.3%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-15.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 70.4% 1.42 +1.7%

Draw 18.3% 24.4% 4.10 -15.0%

Away win 10.0% 18.2% 5.50 -27.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 34.2% 2.92 -4.2%

BTTS 46.4% 50.3% 1.99 -7.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 64.1% 1.56 -3.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% 19.4% 5.15 -25.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.4%

H 72% / xG 2.3-0.4 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.1%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 3–0 14.0%

#4 4–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

9 de Octubre2.3

22 de Julio0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

9 DE OCTUBRE · PPG 2.22

22 DE JULIO · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.95 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

9 de Octubre (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV +1.7%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -15.0%

22 de Julio (A) 10.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

9 de Octubre face 22 de Julio in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 9 de Octubre a 72% chance, the draw 18% and 22 de Julio 10%, so 9 de Octubre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for 9 de Octubre and 0.4 for 22 de Julio (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 9 de Octubre are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.50 for 22 de Julio.

9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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