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Delfin SC vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:15

Delfin SC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones del Norte

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.5%0-114.4%0-24.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.1%2-15.4%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 44.6% 2.24 -10.2%

Draw 32.2% 33.6% 2.98 -4.0%

Away win 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

Over 2.5 35.9% 37.0% 2.70 -3.1%

Over 3.5 18.1% 18.2% 5.50 -0.3%

BTTS 46.4% 46.5% 2.15 -0.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 36.4% 2.75 -8.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.6% 3.90 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.4%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.5%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin SC0.9

Leones del Norte0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN SC · PPG 1.70

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Delfin SC (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -10.2%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -4.0%

Leones del Norte (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin SC face Leones del Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin SC a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Leones del Norte 28%, so Delfin SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Delfin SC and 0.7 for Leones del Norte (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin SC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.90 for Leones del Norte.

Delfin SC vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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