Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC

Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 21 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:00

Emelec

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 48% chance

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.2%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.7%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Draw 26.3% 29.0% 3.45 -5.6%

Away win 24.9% 22.7% 4.40 +5.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Home O1.5 39.3% 50.0% 2.00 -21.4%

Away O1.5 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 7.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.4

Mushuc Runa SC0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.80

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -12.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.6%

Mushuc Runa SC (A) 24.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Mushuc Runa SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Mushuc Runa SC 25%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Emelec and 0.9 for Mushuc Runa SC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.56 for Mushuc Runa SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions