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Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:00

Emelec

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+19.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.8%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.4%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.5%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 54.3% 1.84 -8.7%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Away win 25.5% 23.1% 4.33 +6.3%

Over 2.5 56.7% 47.6% 2.10 +19.1%

Over 3.5 35.0% 26.3% 3.80 +33.0%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Away O1.5 36.4% 27.0% 3.70 +34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -0.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec1.7

Mushuc Runa SC1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.80

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -8.7%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Mushuc Runa SC (A) 25.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Mushuc Runa SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Mushuc Runa SC 26%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Emelec and 1.1 for Mushuc Runa SC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.56 for Mushuc Runa SC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +34.7%.

Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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