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Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:45

Orense SC

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+34.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.0%0-27.1%0-35.6%0-4+5.8%1 1-03.3%1-17.8%1-29.3%1-37.3%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.2%2-15.1%2-26.1%2-34.8%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.6%3-32.1%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 17.9% 5.60 +13.9%

Draw 21.7% 27.4% 3.65 -12.5%

Away win 56.4% 61.7% 1.62 -8.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 50.0% 2.00 +34.0%

Over 3.5 44.5% 28.6% 3.50 +55.8%

BTTS 62.9% 52.4% 1.91 +20.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 23.1% 4.33 +66.7%

Away O1.5 67.0% 55.6% 1.80 +20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob62.9%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orense SC1.3

Independiente del Valle2.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.36

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.06 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Orense SC (H) 22.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +13.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.5%

Independiente del Valle (A) 56.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orense SC face Independiente del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orense SC a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Independiente del Valle 56%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Orense SC and 2.4 for Independiente del Valle (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orense SC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.70 for Independiente del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +66.7%.

Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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