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Mushuc Runa SC vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 19:00

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Libertad

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.6%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.7%1-111.3%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 61.3% 1.63 -14.8%

Draw 24.5% 25.6% 3.90 -2.7%

Away win 23.2% 20.0% 5.00 +9.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 52.6% 1.90 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 57.1% 1.75 -6.4%

Away O1.5 24.7% 26.0% 3.85 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa SC1.7

Libertad0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 1.73

LIBERTAD · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa SC (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -14.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.7%

Libertad (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa SC face Libertad in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa SC a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Libertad 23%, so Mushuc Runa SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.9 for Libertad (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa SC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.64 for Libertad. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Libertad Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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